Monday, October 16, 2017
Natural gas continued its late-week rally on Friday, rising a further 1 cent or 0.4% to close at $3.00/MMBTU, its highest close since September 29, to cap off a weekly gain of 4.8%. The commodity got a shot in the arm on Thursday after an otherwise ho-hum +87 BCF EIA-reported weekly storage injection, perhaps suggesting a relief rally more than anything else, although record LNG exports and an anticipated bullish storage injection in next week’s EIA storage report likely also contributed. Even after the rally, natural gas remains undervalued by 11.5% versus my calculated Fair Price based on current inventories alone, although this undervaluation falls to under 3% based on December projections and futures prices. Crude oil had a strong week as well, rising 85 cents or 1.7% on Friday to settle at $51.45/barrel, up 4.4% on the week. Like natural gas, it was the highest close for the commodity since September 29. Brent crude rose 2.8% on the week to $57.17/barrel so while the Brent-WTI spread narrowed, it still remains at a very robust $5.72/barrel, maintaining upward pressure on domestic oil exports. My Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio rebounded sharply on the week, rising 4.3% to close within 0.4% of a new 2017 high, up +20.6% since …

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Intraday natural gas storage is based on both forecast and observed temperatures as well as early-cycle pipeline data. Today’s projected injection or withdrawal is updated between Midnight and 1 AM and intraday storage changes are updated hourly.

Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG) liquefaction facility is located on the Gulf Coast on the Texas/Louisiana border and became the US’ first LNG export facility in March 2016. The plant receives feedgas deliveries via Cheniere’s wholly owned Creole Trail Pipeline, an 85-mile pipeline that itself receives gas from the Transco, Natural Gas Pipeline of America (NGPL), Texas Eastern (TETCO), and Trunkline pipelines. Liquefied natural gas represents a temperature-independent source of natural gas demand that will become increasingly influential in natural gas supply/demand balance.

LNG tankers transport natural gas that has been cooled and compressed to 1/600th its original volume from Sabine Pass to markets throughout the world. Most tankers have a carrying capacity of the equivalent of 2-5 BCF of gaseous natural gas. The maps and tables below plots the positions of the active fleet of over 300 LNG tankers that have logged a position within the past 3 days.

Powerburn is natural gas burned for the purpose of electricity generation. During the summer months, it is the leading single component of daily natural gas demand. One of its main uses from an analytical standpoint is a metric for the competitiveness of natural gas versus other fuels. This makes powerburn less temperature-dependent than other elements of natural gas demand and it serves as a useful proxy for the looseness/tightness of the gas market.

The Rover Natural Gas Pipeline is a 713 mile pipeline transporting up to 3.25 BCF/day from the Marcellus and Utica shale producing zones of the central Appalachians in Ohio, West Virginia, and Ohio to markets across the Great Lakes and Northeast and to the Dawn Storage Hub in Canada. The pipeline came into partial service on September 1, 2017 and will ramp up over the next few months. It represents an important new source of natural gas supply from a region of explosive production growth this decade but, until now, a lack of adequate take-away capacity. See more on the Rover Pipeline on owner Energy Transfer’s Page HERE. Daily natural gas pipeline volume data updates daily between 10 pm EDT and 12 am EDT

Monday, July 10, 2017
On Friday, the EIA released its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week of June 24-30 and announced that natural gas inventories rose by +72 BCF. The injection was 7 BCF larger than my +65 BCF projection and 6 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average +66 BCF build. Rather than indicate an abrupt loosening of demand, I expect that at least some of the larger-than-expected injection was due to rebalancing from the previous week’s much smaller-than-expected +46 BCF build. Regardless, the East, Pacific, and South Central Regions all saw injections between 3 BCF and 5 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average while the Midwest region saw a bullish +23 BCF injection, 4 BCF bullish. At 2888 BCF, natural gas inventories are now +187 BCF or +7% above the 5-year average while the year-over-year storage deficit fell sharply week-over-week to -285 BCF, the first time that it has been under -300 BCF since March 10. Through the first 14 weeks of the storage injection season, a total of 839 BCF has b…

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Intraday natural gas storage is based on both forecast and observed temperatures as well as early-cycle pipeline data. Today’s projected injection or withdrawal is updated between Midnight and 1 AM and intraday storage changes are updated hourly.

Intraday hottest and coolest temperatures for US cities with a population over 150,000.

Powerburn is natural gas burned for the purpose of electricity generation. During the summer months, it is the leading single component of daily natural gas demand. One of its main uses from an analytical standpoint is a metric for the competitiveness of natural gas versus other fuels. This makes powerburn less temperature-dependent than other elements of natural gas demand and it serves as a useful proxy for the looseness/tightness of the gas market.

Powerburn is natural gas burned for the purpose of electricity generation. During the summer months, it is the leading single component of daily natural gas demand. One of its main uses from an analytical standpoint is a metric for the competitiveness of natural gas versus other fuels. This makes powerburn less temperature-dependent than other elements of natural gas demand and it serves as a useful proxy for the looseness/tightness of the gas market.

Intraday natural gas storage is based on both forecast and observed temperatures as well as early-cycle pipeline data. Today’s projected injection or withdrawal is updated between Midnight and 1 AM and intraday storage changes are updated hourly.

Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG) liquefaction facility is located on the Gulf Coast on the Texas/Louisiana border and became the US’ first LNG export facility in March 2016. The plant receives feedgas deliveries via Cheniere’s wholly owned Creole Trail Pipeline, an 85-mile pipeline that itself receives gas from the Transco, Natural Gas Pipeline of America (NGPL), Texas Eastern (TETCO), and Trunkline pipelines. Liquefied natural gas represents a temperature-independent source of natural gas demand that will become increasingly influential in natural gas supply/demand balance.

LNG tankers transport natural gas that has been cooled and compressed to 1/600th its original volume from Sabine Pass to markets throughout the world. Most tankers have a carrying capacity of the equivalent of 2-5 BCF of gaseous natural gas. The maps and tables below plots the positions of the active fleet of over 300 LNG tankers that have logged a position within the past 3 days.

Wind and solar generation are the two fastest growing sectors that make up the US electric grid. Together which Hydroelectric and Nuclear Generation, these non-petroleum-based energy sources provide over 30% of US electrical generation. Monitoring alternative energy generation is important for natural gas investors because large swings in output can impact gas demand. When wind, solar, nuclear or hydroelectric output increases, these sources displace natural gas demand and when they decrease, natural gas demand increases to substitute.

Powerburn is natural gas burned for the purpose of electricity generation. During the summer months, it is the leading single component of daily natural gas demand. One of its main uses from an analytical standpoint is a metric for the competitiveness of natural gas versus other fuels. This makes powerburn less temperature-dependent than other elements of natural gas demand and it serves as a useful proxy for the looseness/tightness of the gas market.

Intraday natural gas storage is based on both forecast and observed temperatures as well as early-cycle pipeline data. Today’s projected injection or withdrawal is updated between Midnight and 1 AM and intraday storage changes are updated hourly.

Intraday hottest and coolest temperatures for US cities with a population over 150,000.