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Oil Products

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Return To: | Oil Inventories Main Page | Crude Oil Supply | Crude Oil Demand |


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases its weekly Petroleum Report, including refined product stocks, for each Saturday-To-Friday week the following Wednesday at 10:30 AM EDT, excluding holidays. This data is reproduced below or is publicly available HERE.

Total Gasoline Inventories






Distillate Fuel Inventories




Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.

Crude Oil Demand

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Home –> Crude Oil Inventories –> Crude Oil Demand


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases its weekly Petroleum Report, including demand data, for each Saturday-To-Friday week the following Wednesday at 10:30 AM EDT, excluding holidays. This data is reproduced below or is publicly available HERE.

Jump To: | Refinery Demand | Crude Oil Exports | Total Crude Oil Demand |


Refinery Demand
The vast majority of crude oil demand in the United States is consumed at refineries in the production of petroleum products such as gasoline.





Crude Oil Exports
Amidst an historic supply glut, the long-standing US crude oil export ban was overturned in December 2015 and exports have since climbed as high as 1.0 MMbbl/day.





Total Crude Oil Demand
Equal to crude oil refinery inputs plus exports.




Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.

About

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Welcome to Celsius Energy By Force Majeure. Celsius is a data-driven website for investors of all kinds, but is focused on those trading natural gas and oil stocks, ETFs, and derivatives. It uses meteorology & climate in concert with natural gas pipeline data to predict the supply/demand status, and by extension the price, of natural gas.

Celsius provides live supply and demand data, daily projections for the next 4 EIA Natural Gas Inventory Reports, long-term storage forecasts for both oil and natural gas, as well as price projections that are intended to aid those investing in natural gas and related commodities and equities. With their given importance in the domestic energy-scape, Celsius also provides live data for alternative energy generation including wind, nuclear, hydroelectric, and solar output.

We appreciate your interest in Celsius Energy and our services, all of which are provided without cost. If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please contact us at: CelsiusEnergyFM@gmail.com


For updates, follow @ForceMajeure on Stocktwits (http://stocktwits.com/ForceMajeure).

For general commodity and market commentary, please see my work on SeekingAlpha under Force Majeure.


Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.

Portfolio Sample Page (Static)

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Thank you for your interest and support for Celsius Energy. This page displays my live oil & natural gas holdings. The portfolio primarily uses a high-risk, high-reward strategy utilizing leveraged ETFs to capitalize both on over- and under-valuations of each commodity versus their respective Fair Price as well as underlying defects in the ETFs themselves inherent in the leveraging process. The portfolio also often holds smaller stakes in oil & gas producers, midstream partners, exploration companies, and LNG & crude oil tanker companies to balance risk. The portfolio updates near real-time during market hours with new trades and quote data. A trading outlook and discussion is issued on Sunday afternoons and Wednesday mornings with a specific focus on my portfolio holdings and trading strategy for the current week.


Jump to:

—Current Holdings

—90-Day Portfolio Performance

—Weekly Trading Discussion & Outlook


Holdings By Sector
Holdings By Position





This Week’s Trading Outlook & Guide

Portfolio Reaches New 52-Week High On Natural Gas Weakness & Oil Volatility; Natural Gas Remains Overvalued Throughout The Forecast Period While Crude Oil Is Fairly-Valued Near-Term & Undervalued Long-Term; I Continue To Raise Cash


Tuesday, May 30, 2017
Natural gas finished with a low-volatility 0.6% weekly loss while crude oil had a volatile week including a 5% Thursday loss to finish the week with a 1.7% decline. On the week, my oil & natural gas portfolio finished with a small 0.6% gain after rising as much as 1.7% intraweek, bolstered by natural gas weakness and blunted by crude oil weakness. The small gain stretched May’s profit to 10.2%.


As of Friday’s close, natural gas is overvalued by nearly 8% based on current inventories alone and by 4.6% versus its long-term 8-month Average Fair Price. Crude oil, on the other hand, is trading at a small 2.7% overvaluation based on current inventories which, thanks to an ongoing tight market, flips to a 17% undervaluation versus its 8-month average Fair Price.


For this reason, a short position in the 3x ETF UGAZ remains my largest holding comprising 21% of the portfolio. With natural gas approaching its long-term Fair Price, my strategy this week will be to continue taking profits on further weakness in natural gas with a goal to be out of the sector entirely should the July 2017 contract drop to around $3.15/MMBTU. I will then await a divergence from its Fair Price before re-instituting a natural gas long or short position. Should natural gas instead rebound, I will look to add to my position only should the overvaluation versus the 8-month average Fair Price exceed 8%. With generally season demand expected into mid-June, I expect continued rangebound trading with below-average volatility.


Based on Fair Price analysis, I remain long crude oil via a short position in the 3x Inverse ETF DWT. This position comprises 15% of the portfolio. While this undervaluation and tight market form the basis of the trade, this sector is sending mixed signals with an slight loosening in recent weeks, a continued rise in domestic production, and the strong negative response to Thursday’s OPEC announcement, make the trade less compelling. I have no plans to add to this position and will continue to take profits should oil rebound further this week. Both of these positions, particularly oil last week, continue to benefit from leverage-induced decay which is why I continue to hold short positions in the opposing ETF rather than going long.


I continue to hold small long stakes in CHK, BTU, and LNG. LNG continues to be an outformer with gains in this position exceeding 17% in the 5 months or so since I initiated the position. I have no plans to take profits on the position at this time. CHK and my new short position in BTU hold near breakeven.


Disclaimer: Current Portfolio Holdings are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used as trading recommendations nor should they be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use.

Support Celsius Energy

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The CelsiusEnergy.Net website and its associated models and projections have grown exponentially since I first launched in the spring of 2016. I hope to continue improving and expanding the content that it offers.


Celsius Energy has always been free, and that is because I love analyzing oil and natural gas trading, and helping to keep my readers up to date on the fundamental basis of trading, rather than simply relying on gut instinct or technical analysis. It is my goal to keep the core features of the site freely available.


As the site grows, however, site costs and the time commitment to keep the site maintained grow rapidly. It is for this reason that I am offering additional premium features available for a small monthly fee to help support the site. If you have benefitted from the data and commentary offered on Celsius energy over the past year, I encourage you to consider supporting the site and earning access to the follow perks:


1. $10/Month:
-Thank you for helping to support Celsius Energy and keeping data and projections freely available!


2. $25/Month:
– Access to a private, password-protected page detailing my portfolio’s current oil & natural gas holdings–with portfolio value and trades updated in real time throughout the day. This portfolio was up 10% during the month of May. I typically make 3-5 trades per week, guided by a fundamental analysis of oil and gas markets.
– Oil & natural gas trading discussion and strategy guide updated twice per week on Monday and Wednesday
-See a sample (static) page HERE


3. $50/Month:
-Individualize a personalized, custom homepage with up to 24 different data elements (tables, charts, graphs, etc) from any page on the Celsius Energy website–all in one place!
-See a sample (static) custom page HERE
-Also includes access to portfolio page and trading discussion ($25 reward)


I will be offering these rewards through Patreon. Sign-up takes 2 minutes and payment can be made via Paypal or credit card. Click HERE To Sign-Up And Support The Site. If you sign-up for the $25 or $50 perk, expect an email within 12-24 hours with the password for the portfolio page and a preferences request form for the personalized homepage. You can stop your support at any time. Thank you for your continue support and I look forward to the future of Celsius Energy!


If you have any questions about Patreon or any of the perks listed above, please contact me at CelsiusEnergyFM@gmail.com.

Sample Custom Page (Static)

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Jump to: | Current Week Storage Projections | Intraday Storage Data | Natural Gas Investing | Oil Investing | LNG Exports | Powerburn |


Current Week Natural Gas Storage Projections

Weekly natural gas storage projections are generated by a hybrid model based on observed & forecast temperatures as well as natural gas pipeline data. Projections are updated twice daily at 6 AM and 6 PM EDT.
Intraday Natural Gas Storage Data

Intraday natural gas storage is based on both forecast and observed temperatures as well as early-cycle pipeline data. Today’s projected injection or withdrawal is updated between Midnight and 1 AM and intraday storage changes are updated hourly.





Natural Gas Investing


Natural Gas Fair Price Data
Oil Investing


Oil Fair Price Data




Natural Gas LNG Feedgas & Exports

Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG) liquefaction facility is located on the Gulf Coast on the Texas/Louisiana border and became the US’ first LNG export facility in March 2016. The plant receives feedgas deliveries via Cheniere’s wholly owned Creole Trail Pipeline, an 85-mile pipeline that itself receives gas from the Transco, Natural Gas Pipeline of America (NGPL), Texas Eastern (TETCO), and Trunkline pipelines. Liquefied natural gas represents a temperature-independent source of natural gas demand that will become increasingly influential in natural gas supply/demand balance.



LNG Exports & Tankers

LNG tankers transport natural gas that has been cooled and compressed to 1/600th its original volume from Sabine Pass to markets throughout the world. Most tankers have a carrying capacity of the equivalent of 2-5 BCF of gaseous natural gas. The maps and tables below plots the positions of the active fleet of over 300 LNG tankers that have logged a position within the past 3 days.


LNG Tankers Currently Docked At Sabine Pass


Map Of LNG Tankers In The Western Atlantic
Natural Gas Powerburn

Powerburn is natural gas burned for the purpose of electricity generation. During the summer months, it is the leading single component of daily natural gas demand. One of its main uses from an analytical standpoint is a metric for the competitiveness of natural gas versus other fuels. This makes powerburn less temperature-dependent than other elements of natural gas demand and it serves as a useful proxy for the looseness/tightness of the gas market.



Departure Of Intraday Powerburn From 30-Day Average By ISO Region


Natural Gas As A % Of US Electricity Generation


U.S. Utility Electricity Generation By Fuel Type

Custom Page 1

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Jump to: | Current Week Storage Projections | Intraday Storage Data | Natural Gas Investing | Oil Investing | LNG Exports | Powerburn |


Current Week Natural Gas Storage Projections

Weekly natural gas storage projections are generated by a hybrid model based on observed & forecast temperatures as well as natural gas pipeline data. Projections are updated twice daily at 6 AM and 6 PM EDT.


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Intraday Natural Gas Storage Data

Intraday natural gas storage is based on both forecast and observed temperatures as well as early-cycle pipeline data. Today’s projected injection or withdrawal is updated between Midnight and 1 AM and intraday storage changes are updated hourly.





Natural Gas Investing


Natural Gas Fair Price Data
Oil Investing


Oil Fair Price Data




Natural Gas LNG Feedgas & Exports

Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG) liquefaction facility is located on the Gulf Coast on the Texas/Louisiana border and became the US’ first LNG export facility in March 2016. The plant receives feedgas deliveries via Cheniere’s wholly owned Creole Trail Pipeline, an 85-mile pipeline that itself receives gas from the Transco, Natural Gas Pipeline of America (NGPL), Texas Eastern (TETCO), and Trunkline pipelines. Liquefied natural gas represents a temperature-independent source of natural gas demand that will become increasingly influential in natural gas supply/demand balance.



LNG Exports & Tankers

LNG tankers transport natural gas that has been cooled and compressed to 1/600th its original volume from Sabine Pass to markets throughout the world. Most tankers have a carrying capacity of the equivalent of 2-5 BCF of gaseous natural gas. The maps and tables below plots the positions of the active fleet of over 300 LNG tankers that have logged a position within the past 3 days.


LNG Tankers Currently Docked At Sabine Pass


Map Of LNG Tankers In The Western Atlantic
Natural Gas Powerburn

Powerburn is natural gas burned for the purpose of electricity generation. During the summer months, it is the leading single component of daily natural gas demand. One of its main uses from an analytical standpoint is a metric for the competitiveness of natural gas versus other fuels. This makes powerburn less temperature-dependent than other elements of natural gas demand and it serves as a useful proxy for the looseness/tightness of the gas market.



Departure Of Intraday Powerburn From 30-Day Average By ISO Region


Natural Gas As A % Of US Electricity Generation


U.S. Utility Electricity Generation By Fuel Type

Current Natural Gas Inventories

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Home –> Natural Gas Inventories –> Current Natural Gas Storage


The Energy Information Administration releases its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for each Saturday-To-Friday week the following Thursday at 10:30 AM EDT. This data is reproduced below or is publicly available HERE.

Latest EIA-Reported Natural Gas Inventories


2017 Natural Gas Storage Injection Season



5-Year Historical Comparison


Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.

Oil Investing

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Home –> Oil & Natural Gas Investing –> Oil Investing

Jump To:

–>Intraday Quotes

–>Oil & Oil Services ETFs

–>Crude Oil ETF Holdings

–>Crude Oil Fair Price Analysis (***NEW!***)

–>Positions & Convictions Of Crude Oil Traders


Intraday Crude Oil Quotes





Oil ETFs




Crude Oil ETF Holdings

Oil ETFs such as USO, UCO, and UWTI must hold futures contracts in order to track the commodity’s day-to-day changes. The funds must rollover these contracts a week or so prior to expiration in order to avoid taking delivery of physical product. The charts below show the current futures contract holdings of these products.

USO Holdings:


The most popular and un-levereged Natural Gas ETF, USO, rolls over 5-7 days after its leveraged counterparts, completing the transition about two weeks prior to expiration of the front month contract.

Source:USCF Investments

UWTI & DWTI Holdings


The 3x leveraged ETFs, UWTI and its inverse counterpart DWTI, roll over earlier than USO, completing the roll 15-20 days prior to expiration of the front-month contract.

Source:VelocityShares



Crude Oil Fair Price Analysis
What Is The Crude Fair Price?

The “Fair Price” of natural gas is an estimate of a neutral valuation for crude oil based on the current oil surplus or deficit versus the 5-year average. The departure from average is compared to weeks in the previous 6 years with a similar surplus or deficit and calculating the average price of natural gas at those times. Because oil is valued not only by current supply and demand but by the predicted state of the market, this Fair Price calculation is performed based on projected storage levels on a weekly basis. This data is shown on the graph to the left. If the current Futures Price is below the Fair Price, the commodity is said to be undervalued with prices more likely to rally than pullback. If the Futures Price is above the Fair Price, the commodity is said to be overvalued with prices more likely to decline. Click HERE for more details regarding storage projections on my Crude Oil Inventories page.



8-Month Average Fair Price




Storage-Period Specific Fair Price



Positions & Convictions Of Oil Traders



Positions & Convictions Of Natural Gas Traders

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) releases data and analysis on natural gas option positions each Friday afternoon at around 3:30 pm EDT for the preceding Tuesday. This includes total open interest and breakdown of long and short contracts amongst money managers, all of which is shown below. One natural gas contract represents 10,000 MMBTU’s, or about $25,000. Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission.


Open Interest

Open interest represents the total number of contracts that have not been settled or offset by delivery. A spike in open interest often precedes an increase in volatility as more money flows into the market. A declining open interest suggests that major traders are liquidating their positions, possibly heralding an end to whatever the current trend is. The data shown below includes open interest for all contracts traded, including money managers, producers, merchants, and swap dealers.


Long Vs Short Positions Of Money Managers

The data below shows a breakdown of open long contracts versus open short contracts among money managers.


% Of Contracts Held Long Among Money Managers

The chart below is a derivative of the chart to the left and shows the percentage of all outstanding contracts among money managers that are held on the long side. A percentage above 50% suggests that investors are net long and inherently bullish.


Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.

Weather Data Day 3

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Home –> Weather Data –> Near-Term Weather –>Day 3

Jump To: | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Day 4 | Day 5 | Day 6 | Day 7 |




12-Hour Mean Temperature Forecast Trend

Trend in forecast mean temperature over the past 12 hours by city, represented as a 2F or more cooldown (blue circle), 2F or more warm-up (orange circle), or mean temperature within +/-2F of the forecast 12 hours ago.




Forecast U.S. Total Degree Day Historical Comparison

Today’s forecast Total Degree Days (TDDs) versus observed TDDs since 1981. TDDs are a metric of weather-dependent natural gas demand equal to the sum of forecast heating and cooling degree days.



Total Degree Day Data & Historical Comparison By Natural Gas Storage Region
Total Degree Days By Natural Gas Storage Region

Today’s forecast Total Degree Days (TDDs) for each natural gas storage region. There are 5 natural gas storage regions reported by the EIA–the East, Midwest, South Central, Mountain, and Pacific. Population-weighted forecast TDDs for each are determined and shown below.
Natural Gas Storage Region Total Degree Day Historical Comparison

Forecast Total Degree Days (TDDs) by natural gas storage region ranked versus observed TDDs in the 37 years since 1981.



Forecast Temperature & Departure From Average Data
Low Temperature Data
High Temperature Data



Data Source: Tropical Tidbits By Levi Cowan



Forecast Temperature & Degree Day Data By City



Disclaimer: Natural Gas & Oil Storage Projections, Intraday Natural Gas Stats, Renewable Energy Stats, Morning Reports, and fundamental pricing models are released by Celsius Energy as experimental products. While they are intended to provide accurate, up-to-date data, they should not be used alone in making investment decisions, or decisions of any kind. Celsius Energy does not make an express or implied warranty of any kind regarding the data information including, without limitation, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. See full Privacy Policy HERE.