–>8-14 Day Outlook

–>3-6 Week Outlook ***New!***

–>2-6 Month Outlook

The 8-14 day temperature outlook is issued by the National Weather Service Monday-Friday and updates around 3 pm EDT. It estimates the probability of a given region seeing above or below average temperatures during this period. It does not forecast the magnitude of these departures.

The climate prediction center (CPC) releases extended range outlooks for Week 3-6 daily through its NCEP version 2 coupled forecast system model (CFSv2). These maps plot projected weekly temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius (C). These maps update twice daily at 7 AM and 7 PM EDT. Quantitative data is displayed beneath the maps.

Friday, January 5, 2018

A smaller-than-expected natural gas storage withdrawal by the EIA prompted an acceleration of Wednesday’s profit-taking as the commodity dropped over 4% to settle back under $2.90/MMBTU. In its weekly natural gas storage report for the week of December 23-29, the EIA announced that natural gas inventories declined by -206 BCF. This was the largest storage withdrawal of the 2017-2018 heating season so far and 107 BCF bullish versus the 5-year average, but came in a disappointing 18 BCF smaller than my projected -224 BCF withdrawal. Admittedly, the week included the Christmas holiday and its associated unpredictable commercial and industrial demand suppression so it is difficult to infer too much about the underlying supply/demand balance of the week. Driving the withdrawal was a large increase in demand with residential/commercial demand approaching 50 BCF/day, up 15 BCF/day from the same week last year. Powerburn was also robust at 26 BCF/day, up nearly 7 BCF/day year-over-year. Natura…

Continue Reading Full Article…

Intraday nationwide temperature data is calculated on a population-weighted basis using a network of 210 reporting stations. The data is updated hourly throughout the day and is compared to a 1981-present average.

Intraday natural gas storage is based on both forecast and observed temperatures as well as early-cycle pipeline data. Today’s projected injection or withdrawal is updated between Midnight and 1 AM and intraday storage changes are updated hourly.

Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG) liquefaction facility is located on the Gulf Coast on the Texas/Louisiana border and became the US’ first LNG export facility in March 2016. The plant receives feedgas deliveries via Cheniere’s wholly owned Creole Trail Pipeline, an 85-mile pipeline that itself receives gas from the Transco, Natural Gas Pipeline of America (NGPL), Texas Eastern (TETCO), and Trunkline pipelines. Liquefied natural gas represents a temperature-independent source of natural gas demand that will become increasingly influential in natural gas supply/demand balance.

LNG tankers transport natural gas that has been cooled and compressed to 1/600th its original volume from Sabine Pass to markets throughout the world. Most tankers have a carrying capacity of the equivalent of 2-5 BCF of gaseous natural gas. The maps and tables below plots the positions of the active fleet of over 300 LNG tankers that have logged a position within the past 3 days.

Powerburn is natural gas burned for the purpose of electricity generation. During the summer months, it is the leading single component of daily natural gas demand. One of its main uses from an analytical standpoint is a metric for the competitiveness of natural gas versus other fuels. This makes powerburn less temperature-dependent than other elements of natural gas demand and it serves as a useful proxy for the looseness/tightness of the gas market.

Click HERE for full contest rules and regulations.