Jaime’s Homepage

Intraday nationwide temperature data is calculated on a population-weighted basis using a network of 210 reporting stations. The data is updated hourly throughout the day and is compared to a 1981-present average.

Intraday natural gas storage is based on both forecast and observed temperatures as well as early-cycle pipeline data. Today’s projected injection or withdrawal is updated between Midnight and 1 AM and intraday storage changes are updated hourly.

Natural gas Total Degree Days (TDDs) are a composite measure of temperature-driven gas demand that factor in heating degree days (HDDs), cooling degree days (CDDs), and population distribution. The numerical data displayed below updates 4 times per day based on 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z computer model run data.

Natural gas storage projections for the next 4 storage weeks are based on a combination of observed and forecast temperatures as well as natural gas pipeline data. Projections are updated at 7AM and 7PM EDT.

Today’s forecast data is based on data from the latest run of the American GFS model and is compared to 1981-2016 normals. The forecast is updated four times daily.

The “Fair Price” of natural gas is an estimate of a neutral valuation for natural gas based on the current gas surplus or deficit versus the 5-year average. The natural gas departure from average is compared to weeks in the previous 5 years with a similar surplus or deficit and calculating the average price of natural gas at those times.