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Natural Gas Rises Again As Front-Month Contract’s 3-Day Gains Top 13%; EIA Projected To Announce Bearish -37 BCF Weekly Storage Withdrawal For November 18-24 Today; Gas Demand Remains Soft Through The Weekend Before Arctic Air Arrives, Justifying Rally, But Caution Is Needed; Week 5 Of My Storage Contest Opens Today

Thursday, November 30, 2017
In its weekly Petroleum Status Report, the EIA announced Wednesday that crude oil inventories dropped by -3.4 MMbbls for the week of November 18-24. The drawdown was slightly bullish versus the 5-year average -0.2 MMbbl and was a considerable improvement over the API’s Tuesday evening forecast of a +1.8 MMbbl storage build. At 453.7 MMbbls, crude oil inventories are +53.5 MMbbls larger than the 5-year average–down 95 MMbbls from last spring’s record +148 MMbbl peak surplus–and are -34.4 MMbbls lower than year-ago levels. While the storage draw was a pleasant surprise relative to expectations, it was cancelled out by a +3.6 MMbbl gasoline inventory build (5-year average +1.53 MMbbl) and a +2.8 MMbbl distillate build (5-year average +0.8 MMbbl). The pair of builds were enough to flip both gasoline and distillate stocks from a deficit to a surplus versus their respective 5-year averages. Total Petroleum Inventories (crude oil + distillates + gasoline) rose by +3.0 MMbbls, a slight 0.5 …

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Data Source: Tropical Tidbits By Levi Cowan

Near-Term Degree Day Outlook (Data)

Natural gas Total Degree Days (TDDs) are a composite measure of temperature-driven gas demand that factor in heating degree days (HDDs), cooling degree days (CDDs), and population distribution. The numerical data displayed below updates 4 times per day based on 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z computer model run data.

Natural Gas Powerburn

Powerburn is natural gas burned for the purpose of electricity generation. During the summer months, it is the leading single component of daily natural gas demand. One of its main uses from an analytical standpoint is a metric for the competitiveness of natural gas versus other fuels. This makes powerburn less temperature-dependent than other elements of natural gas demand and it serves as a useful proxy for the looseness/tightness of the gas market.

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