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| This page incorporates data from a variety of near-term and long-term computer models to project gas-weighted degree days (GWDDs) for the next 6 weeks. GWDDs represent a combination of heating and cooling degree days and natural gas geographic usage patterns to generate a temperature-dependent projection of relative natural gas demand. The GFS ENS model updates four times daily, the ECMWF ENS and CFS models twice daily, and the ECMWF-EPS model twice weekly. All attempts will be made to issue new updates timely, but data may be delayed. The data below is numerical only and processed according to proprietary algorithms as sharing ECMWF maps is disallowed. |
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Why focus on the 10-14 day period? Natural gas traders are forward-looking and degree-day data for the first week is often already priced in and can often mask trends later in the period. Days 10-14 represent the furthest extent of the near-term outlook, but within the range that investors consider “reliable.” It is evolving trends during this period that are frequently most responsible for driving near-term natural gas prices. |
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