Natural gas Total Degree Days (TDDs) are a composite measure of temperature-driven gas demand that factor in heating degree days (HDDs), cooling degree days (CDDs), and population distribution. The numerical data displayed below updates 4 times per day based on 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z computer model run data.

Forecast total Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) for the past 7 days of GFS model output are shown in the figures below to highlight the trend in the GWDD forecast during this period.

Click each of the days below for detailed forecast temperature and degree day data and analysis for that date. Data updated twice per day at around 1 PM EDT and 1 AM EDT with 12Z and 0Z model data, respectively.

Intraday nationwide temperature data is calculated on a population-weighted basis using a network of 210 reporting stations. The data is updated hourly throughout the day and is compared to a 1981-present average.

Intraday natural gas storage is based on both forecast and observed temperatures as well as early-cycle pipeline data. Today’s projected injection or withdrawal is updated between Midnight and 1 AM and intraday storage changes are updated hourly.

Natural gas Total Degree Days (TDDs) are a composite measure of temperature-driven gas demand that factor in heating degree days (HDDs), cooling degree days (CDDs), and population distribution. The numerical data displayed below updates 4 times per day based on 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z computer model run data.

Natural gas storage projections for the next 4 storage weeks are based on a combination of observed and forecast temperatures as well as natural gas pipeline data. Projections are updated at 7AM and 7PM EDT.

Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG) liquefaction facility is located on the Gulf Coast on the Texas/Louisiana border and became the US’ first LNG export facility in March 2016. The plant receives feedgas deliveries via Cheniere’s wholly owned Creole Trail Pipeline, an 85-mile pipeline that itself receives gas from the Transco, Natural Gas Pipeline of America (NGPL), Texas Eastern (TETCO), and Trunkline pipelines. Liquefied natural gas represents a temperature-independent source of natural gas demand that will become increasingly influential in natural gas supply/demand balance.

LNG tankers transport natural gas that has been cooled and compressed to 1/600th its original volume from Sabine Pass to markets throughout the world. Most tankers have a carrying capacity of the equivalent of 2-5 BCF of gaseous natural gas. The maps and tables below plots the positions of the active fleet of over 300 LNG tankers that have logged a position within the past 3 days.

Powerburn is natural gas burned for the purpose of electricity generation. During the summer months, it is the leading single component of daily natural gas demand. One of its main uses from an analytical standpoint is a metric for the competitiveness of natural gas versus other fuels. This makes powerburn less temperature-dependent than other elements of natural gas demand and it serves as a useful proxy for the looseness/tightness of the gas market.

This table shows the submitted natural gas storage projection, forecast closing price, and time bonus for the current contest week. Projections are hidden until submissions for that week close on Tuesday at 5:00 pm EDT, after which they will be visible to all until the next contest week begins on Thursday.

Thursday, November 30, 2017
In its weekly Petroleum Status Report, the EIA announced Wednesday that crude oil inventories dropped by -3.4 MMbbls for the week of November 18-24. The drawdown was slightly bullish versus the 5-year average -0.2 MMbbl and was a considerable improvement over the API’s Tuesday evening forecast of a +1.8 MMbbl storage build. At 453.7 MMbbls, crude oil inventories are +53.5 MMbbls larger than the 5-year average–down 95 MMbbls from last spring’s record +148 MMbbl peak surplus–and are -34.4 MMbbls lower than year-ago levels. While the storage draw was a pleasant surprise relative to expectations, it was cancelled out by a +3.6 MMbbl gasoline inventory build (5-year average +1.53 MMbbl) and a +2.8 MMbbl distillate build (5-year average +0.8 MMbbl). The pair of builds were enough to flip both gasoline and distillate stocks from a deficit to a surplus versus their respective 5-year averages. Total Petroleum Inventories (crude oil + distillates + gasoline) rose by +3.0 MMbbls, a slight 0.5 …

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Nationwide temperature data is calculated by weighting the top 210 cities in the United States by population to generate a mean intraday total. Temperature data is updated hourly based on publicly available NWS weather station data.

The maps displayed below updates 4 times per day based on 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z computer model run data and is displayed live on this page as updates roll in.

Natural gas Total Degree Days (TDDs) are a composite measure of temperature-driven gas demand that factor in heating degree days (HDDs), cooling degree days (CDDs), and population distribution. The numerical data displayed below updates 4 times per day based on 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z computer model run data.

Powerburn is natural gas burned for the purpose of electricity generation. During the summer months, it is the leading single component of daily natural gas demand. One of its main uses from an analytical standpoint is a metric for the competitiveness of natural gas versus other fuels. This makes powerburn less temperature-dependent than other elements of natural gas demand and it serves as a useful proxy for the looseness/tightness of the gas market.

Intraday natural gas storage is based on both forecast and observed temperatures as well as early-cycle pipeline data.